Commodity Vessels Queue Up Off China’s Coast
October 31, 2025
Maritime transport is once again proving why it sits at the centre of global trade
Maritime transport is once again proving why it sits at the centre of global trade. While trade routes, technologies and regulations continue to evolve, shipping has adapted with discipline rather than disruption. The numbers from the past year tell a clear story — one of adjustment, resilience and long-term recalibration.
Trade Volumes vs Distance: A Structural Shift
Global seaborne trade growth has moderated, but activity at sea has not slowed in the same proportion. After growing by 2.2% in 2024, global maritime trade is estimated to grow by around 0.5% in the near term before returning to an average of roughly 2% annually over the medium term.
What stands out is distance. Vessel rerouting has pushed ton-mile demand up by nearly 6% in a single year — almost three times the growth in cargo volumes. Longer voyages around alternative routes have increased fleet utilisation, tightened effective capacity and reinforced shipping’s role in keeping supply chains moving under pressure.
Energy and Bulk Trades Are Redrawing the Map
Maritime energy trade continues to reshape shipping patterns. Oil volumes have remained broadly stable, but longer sailing distances have increased ton-mile demand. Liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas movements have expanded, reflecting diversification in energy sourcing and trade routes.
In dry bulk, demand for coal, grains, fertilisers and critical minerals has supported steady cargo flows. The seaborne trade of key critical minerals such as bauxite, copper concentrates and nickel ore has grown consistently over the past decade, underlining shipping’s role in supporting the energy transition and industrial supply chains.
These shifts are changing not just volumes, but the geography of trade — influencing vessel deployment, port calls and regional connectivity.
Shipping Lanes Under Pressure, Capacity Adjusting
By mid-2025, tonnage transiting through the Suez Canal remained approximately 70% below earlier benchmarks, while the Strait of Hormuz continues to carry close to 11% of global trade and a significant share of seaborne oil movements. Rerouting has lengthened voyages and increased operational costs, but it has also absorbed capacity and supported freight markets across segments.
At the same time, fleet growth has remained measured. As of early 2025, the global fleet stood at around 112,500 vessels with total capacity of 2.44 billion deadweight tons. Ownership remains concentrated, with Greece, China and Japan controlling more than 40% of global capacity, while nearly half of all tonnage is registered under three flag states.
This balance between fleet growth and demand has helped avoid the oversupply cycles that historically followed strong freight markets.
Freight Rates: Volatile, but Structurally Supported
Freight rate volatility has become a permanent feature rather than an exception. Container freight rates surged during periods of disruption, with spot indices reaching levels well above pre-crisis averages before easing, yet remaining structurally higher than historical norms.
Dry bulk markets experienced strong rate support driven by cargo demand and limited fleet growth, while tanker markets reflected their sensitivity to geopolitical developments, with sharp rate movements during periods of heightened risk.
Environmental compliance costs are now an added factor. Emissions pricing mechanisms, particularly in Europe, are beginning to influence voyage economics, fleet decisions and competitiveness across shipping segments.
Ports, Digitalisation and Connectivity
Ports have faced increasing operational strain. Average waiting times rose across both developed and developing economies as schedules adjusted to longer voyages and changing service patterns. These pressures have reinforced the importance of efficiency, digital coordination and infrastructure readiness.
Digital trade facilitation is delivering measurable results. Countries and ports with implemented port community systems, maritime single windows or trade single windows consistently show higher shipping connectivity and better logistics performance. By 2024, around 200 ports globally were already offering LNG bunkering services, with more in development.
Technology is no longer a future investment — it is now embedded in day-to-day maritime operations.
People Remain the Industry’s Anchor
Despite rapid technological change, shipping remains a people-driven industry. Commercial judgement, operational experience and skilled decision-making continue to define performance on chartering desks, in operations teams and across ports.
As automation expands and digital tools become standard, the demand for trained, commercially aware professionals is increasing — not decreasing. Investment in people, alongside systems and infrastructure, remains critical for long-term competitiveness.
A Sector Moving with Intent
Maritime transport has faced disruption before, but the current phase stands out for its convergence of operational, technological and environmental change. What the data shows is not instability, but adjustment — carried out with discipline and increasing coordination across the industry.
Shipping continues to adapt, not by reacting to every disruption, but by strengthening fundamentals: measured fleet growth, smarter operations, deeper digital integration and continued investment in talent.
The industry is not standing still. It is moving forward with clarity, supported by numbers that point toward resilience rather than uncertainty.
